Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
The model projects Logan Thomas to total 6.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
Logan Thomas's 34.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 28.3.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.

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