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Logan Thomas
NFL · Player Props
Logan Thomas
TE · Washington Commanders
Receptions
Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023 Updated Oct 6, 2023 2:41 AM UTC
NFL Props Logan Thomas Receptions

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -175.

Favors Over
  • The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
  • The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
  • The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The model projects Logan Thomas to accrue 4.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Logan Thomas's 29.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 82nd percentile for tight ends.
Favors Under
  • The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
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