Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 2:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The model projects Logan Thomas to accrue 4.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Logan Thomas's 29.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 82nd percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.

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