Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+164/-215).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
Logan Thomas has run a route on 68.6% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (80.7%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (80.7%).
The Arizona Cardinals defensive tackles rank as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Logan Thomas has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in a measly 66.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 23rd percentile.

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