Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Logan Thomas's 26.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 42.1.
Logan Thomas's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 60.0%.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.