Logan Thomas Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to accrue 3.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in the NFL (79.4%) vs. TEs this year (79.4%).
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 2nd-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Logan Thomas has run fewer routes this year (64.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.5%).
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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