Logan Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 9.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Commanders are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to accrue 5.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 9th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Logan Thomas's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.8% to 50.9%.
Logan Thomas has been among the worst tight ends in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 2.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 20th percentile.
The Denver Broncos linebackers grade out as the 8th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.