Logan Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
Logan Thomas has run a route on 68.6% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Logan Thomas has totaled a colossal 29.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 83rd percentile among tight ends.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (63.0) vs. tight ends since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Logan Thomas has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, hauling in a measly 66.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 23rd percentile.
Logan Thomas has been among the least effective receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a mere 5.60 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 9th percentile.