Logan Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.30 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Logan Thomas has run a route on 77.6% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to total 4.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
Logan Thomas's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 62.7%.
The Washington Commanders have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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