Logan Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 9:31 PM EST

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup quarterback Sam Howell in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 11th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Logan Thomas has been less involved as a potential target this season (68.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (82.5%).
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Logan Thomas's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 65.8%.
Logan Thomas's pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling just 5.49 yards-per-target vs a 7.85 figure last season.

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