Logan Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to garner 3.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Logan Thomas has posted a whopping 28.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among tight ends.
The New York Giants pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Completion% in football (78.7%) vs. tight ends this year (78.7%).
The New York Giants pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. TEs this year, giving up 9.11 yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in football.
Logan Thomas has run fewer routes this year (63.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.5%).

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