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Logan Thomas

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-125/-105).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Logan Thomas has put up a whopping 29.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among tight ends.

The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (55.0) to TEs this year.

The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.

Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (62.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.5%).

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