Logan Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.8% pass rate.
Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential target this year (61.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (82.5%).
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Logan Thomas's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 58.2%.
Logan Thomas's receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 5.11 yards-per-target compared to a 7.86 mark last season.

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