Logan Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-129/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
Logan Thomas has accounted for a monstrous 24.6% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 97th percentile among TEs.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Logan Thomas has been among the best tight ends in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging an impressive 5.44 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 76th percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 9th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 11th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to be a much smaller part of his team's pass attack this week (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.6% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.13 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in football.