Logan Thomas Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

My Account Log Out

reorder

Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+344/-662).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +363 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +344.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Logan Thomas has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which ranks in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
Logan Thomas has put up a whopping 31.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among tight ends.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 10th-highest Completion% in football (76.1%) versus TEs this year (76.1%).

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Logan Thomas's 26.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 42.1.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Logan Thomas's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 62.8%.

More Logan Thomas Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow