Logan Thomas Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

My Account Log Out

reorder

Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+431/-974).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Logan Thomas has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 14.8% this year, which ranks in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Logan Thomas has put up a whopping 29.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among tight ends.
The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.44 per game this year.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
Logan Thomas's 23.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 42.1.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

More Logan Thomas Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow