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Logan Thomas

Logan Thomas Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 11

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders

Logan Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+431/-974).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Logan Thomas has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 14.8% this year, which ranks in the 84th percentile among tight ends.

Logan Thomas has put up a whopping 29.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among tight ends.

The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.44 per game this year.

The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.

Logan Thomas's 23.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 42.1.

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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