Lil'Jordan Humphrey Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Lil'Jordan Humphrey

NFL · Player Props

Lil'Jordan Humphrey

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Lil'Jordan Humphrey Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey has garnered a mere 2.0% of his offense's air yards this year: a lowly 19th percentile among WRs.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey's 13.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the worst in the league: 21st percentile for WRs.

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