Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 64.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to garner 18.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Leonard Fournette has been a much bigger part of his team's run game this season (79.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (66.0%).
Leonard Fournette has picked up 59.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (79th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Leonard Fournette's running effectiveness has declined this season, compiling just 3.73 yards-per-carry vs a 5.01 rate last season.
Leonard Fournette has been among the weakest RBs in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.36 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 5th percentile.

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