Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 60.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to notch 17.1 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Leonard Fournette has picked up 56.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (76th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-most yards in football (131 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a less important option in his team's running game this week (67.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (79.3% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Leonard Fournette's ground efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling just 3.81 yards-per-carry vs a 5.01 figure last season.
Leonard Fournette has been among the weakest RBs in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.47 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 7th percentile.

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