Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 66.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 66.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to accrue 17.3 carries in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
Leonard Fournette has generated 56.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (79th percentile).
The Atlanta Falcons defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.30 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (68.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (82.2% in games he has played).
Leonard Fournette's ground efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging a mere 3.73 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.01 rate last year.
Leonard Fournette has been among the worst running backs in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.37 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 14th percentile.

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