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Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 70.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 63.8 plays per game.The Arizona Cardinals defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding 5.23 yards-per-carry.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 33.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game this week (41.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (61.4% in games he has played).Leonard Fournette has run for significantly fewer yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).Leonard Fournette's ground efficiency has tailed off this season, notching a measly 3.81 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.01 mark last season.
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