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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 70.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 63.8 plays per game.
  • The Arizona Cardinals defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding 5.23 yards-per-carry.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 33.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game this week (41.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (61.4% in games he has played).
  • Leonard Fournette has run for significantly fewer yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).
  • Leonard Fournette's ground efficiency has tailed off this season, notching a measly 3.81 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.01 mark last season.

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