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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+102/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.9 plays per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized motion in their offense on 45.6% of their plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 31.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (37.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (63.1% in games he has played).

Leonard Fournette has rushed for many fewer yards per game (46.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).

Leonard Fournette's rushing effectiveness has declined this year, notching just 3.70 yards-per-carry vs a 5.01 rate last year.

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