Leonard Fournette Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+169/-243).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +187 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +169.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 32.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his team's run game near the goal line this week (67.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (83.3% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.57 per game) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.