Leonard Fournette Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +132 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Leonard Fournette has been given 80.0% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Opposing teams have run for the 7th-most touchdowns in the league (1.17 per game) versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 34.8% red zone run rate.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles profile as the best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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