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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-165).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Leonard Fournette has garnered 70.0% of his offense's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 34.7% red zone run rate.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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