Leonard Fournette Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Leonard Fournette has garnered 74.6% of his team's red zone carries since the start of last season, putting him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-most TDs in the league (1.00 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 8th-worst LB corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 35.0% red zone run rate.
Leonard Fournette has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest marks in the league among RBs (1st percentile).

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