Leonard Fournette Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 12:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+136/-186).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -159 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -186.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 6th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
Leonard Fournette has earned 75.9% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among RBs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Leonard Fournette has run for 0.44 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (89th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 36.5% red zone run rate.

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