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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+141/-194).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be much more involved in his team's run game near the goal line this week (88.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (75.4% in games he has played).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

Leonard Fournette has rushed for 0.47 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in football among RBs (90th percentile).

The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-least run-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 37.3% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have run for the 8th-least TDs in the NFL (0.74 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.

The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 6th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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