Leonard Fournette Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+327/-611).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +333 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +327.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized motion in their offense on 45.6% of their plays since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 31.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (43.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (72.4% in games he has played).
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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