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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 14

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+367/-738).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +380 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +367.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated motion in their offense on 45.6% of their plays since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 31.9% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a less important option in his offense's running game near the end zone this week (52.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (75.0% in games he has played).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

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