Leonard Fournette Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-362).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +243 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +230.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 32.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be much less involved in his team's run game near the end zone this week (49.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (73.1% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends rank as the 7th-best DE corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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