Leonard Fournette Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 27, 2022 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.0 (+115/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 4.0 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 68.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 10th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a measly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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