Leonard Fournette Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Leonard Fournette has run a route on 63.5% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to earn 5.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a mere 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.