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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers

Leonard Fournette Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+146/-204).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -163 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -204.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.

Leonard Fournette has run a route on 57.7% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to notch 4.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Leonard Fournette's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 82.7% to 68.8%.

The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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