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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers

Leonard Fournette Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+141/-191).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -157 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -191.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Leonard Fournette has run a route on 57.5% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to accrue 4.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in the league since the start of last season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a lowly 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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