Leonard Fournette Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to earn 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in the league.
Leonard Fournette's 16.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 22.3.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (74.5%) versus running backs this year (74.5%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

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