Leonard Fournette Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:26 PM EST

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 63.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Leonard Fournette has run a route on 62.2% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 98th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a lowly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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