Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Leonard Fournette has run a route on 61.6% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to notch 5.0 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Leonard Fournette has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (-7.0 per game) than he did last season (3.0 per game).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 28.0) versus RBs this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69.9%) versus RBs this year (69.9%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 7.48 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in football.

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