Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:30 PM EST

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-155/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
Leonard Fournette has run a route on 57.7% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to notch 4.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Leonard Fournette has posted a whopping 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Leonard Fournette's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 82.7% to 68.8%.
Leonard Fournette's pass-game efficiency has declined this season, notching just 3.33 yards-per-target vs a 5.73 rate last season.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, surrendering 5.35 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.87 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the league.