Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to earn 5.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 31.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (72.2%) to RBs since the start of last season (72.2%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the 6th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.