Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+101/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Leonard Fournette has notched a puny -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 8th percentile among RBs.
Leonard Fournette's 17.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 22.3.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 26.0) vs. running backs this year.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.

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