Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Leonard Fournette has run a route on 57.5% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to accrue 4.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Leonard Fournette has posted a puny -4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 6th percentile among RBs.
The Carolina Panthers defense has yielded the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 28.0) vs. RBs this year.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has displayed good efficiency against running backs this year, conceding 5.42 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in football.

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