Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 134.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
Leonard Fournette has run a route on 58.5% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Leonard Fournette has compiled a paltry -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 8th percentile among running backs.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (74.8%) versus running backs this year (74.8%).
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a mere 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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