Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+118/-158).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to earn 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in the league.
Leonard Fournette has accumulated a paltry -5.0 air yards per game this year: just 6th percentile among running backs.
Leonard Fournette's 16.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 22.3.
The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 27.0) versus running backs this year.

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