Leonard Fournette Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+385/-799).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -781 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -799.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
Leonard Fournette has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 10.0% this year, which ranks in the 77th percentile among RBs.
Leonard Fournette's 17.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 86th percentile for running backs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Leonard Fournette has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (-7.0 per game) than he did last season (3.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (75.3%) versus RBs this year (75.3%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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