Leonard Fournette Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+236/-388).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +299 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +236.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Leonard Fournette has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.1% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
Leonard Fournette's 20.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 90th percentile for RBs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Leonard Fournette has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (-7.0 per game) than he did last season (3.0 per game).
The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.