Leonard Fournette Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+342/-655).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +389 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +342.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Leonard Fournette's 20.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 90th percentile for running backs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Leonard Fournette's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 82.8% to 88.9%.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (13.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (19.0% in games he has played).
Leonard Fournette has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (-7.0 per game) than he did last season (3.0 per game).
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69.9%) versus RBs this year (69.9%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has given up the least touchdowns through the air in football to running backs: 0.00 per game this year.

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