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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks

Leonard Fournette Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+263/-450).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +335 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +263.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 63.1 plays per game.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Leonard Fournette has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 10.3% this year, which puts him in the 80th percentile among RBs.

Leonard Fournette's 17.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 86th percentile for RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 10th-least in football.

Leonard Fournette has put up a meager -5.0 air yards per game this year: just 3rd percentile among running backs.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a lowly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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