Leonard Fournette Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:13 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1005).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -705 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1005.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.
Leonard Fournette has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.1% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 96th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (76.3%) versus running backs since the start of last season (76.3%).
The Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered the 4th-least passing touchdowns in the league to RBs: 0.12 per game since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.