Leonard Fournette Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:26 PM EST

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.0 (+100/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 13.0 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to earn 13.3 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 32.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (61.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (76.6% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

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