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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Carries
Player Prop Week 7

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-100/-130).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to garner 18.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.

Leonard Fournette has been a much bigger part of his team's run game this season (79.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (66.0%).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles profile as the best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box against opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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